A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
